Latest Jobs Conjuring – Spend Now, Promise Cuts Tomorrow

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Will even more temporary and targeted tax cuts and spending increases work?

“The unfortunate reality is that even if Republicans gave Mr. Obama everything he wanted, the impact on growth would be modest at best. Washington can most help the economy with serious spending restraint, permanent tax-rate cuts, regulatory relief and repeal of ObamaCare. What won’t help growth is more temporary, targeted political conjuring.”

Wall Street Journal, Editorial, The Latest Jobs Plan, Sept. 09, 2011.

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ADP: 91k Private Sector Jobs Created in August

U.S. private-sector employment increased by an anemic 91,000 jobs in august, according to ADP National employment Report.

EmploymentPrivate-sector employment increased by 91,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from June to July was revised down modestly to 109,000, from the initially reported 114,000.

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Job Growth Stuck on Slow

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Comment on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report

Job Growth Stuck on Slow

“After two very disappointing jobs reports, employment increased a little faster in July. The key is the slow pace of hiring in “core” services (which excludes health and education). And the key to any pickup in job growth is an improvement in overall economic demand, especially from the consumer sector. With gasoline prices, but not grocery prices, easing, there could be a little more spending elsewhere.

But that suggests only slow improvement at best through the second half of 2011. There is no help on the way from monetary or fiscal policy, at the federal, state, or local level. Businesses, however, appear to believe they can maintain profits while adding cautiously to payrolls. If that is true, the labor market will slowly come back, but it’s a long way back.”

- Kathy Bostjancic, Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, The Conference Board

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July 2011 ADP National Employment Report®

ADP sees employment decelerating in line with poor GDP numbers. When had it been accelerating? 

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose just 114,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report®. Note: the May to June estimated advance in employment was revised down modestly to 145,000, from the initially reported 157,000. 

Employment in the construction industry declined 11,000 in July, the third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,135,000.

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Conference Board: Employment Trends Index Ticks Up

Although hiring came to a near-standstill last month, casting doubt on economy’s ability to rebound in the second half of the year, the Conference Board maintains ETI points to weak job growth, not decline.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™(ETI) increased slightly in June to 100.0, up from May’s revised figure of 99.5. The June figure is up 5.4 percent from a year ago.

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ADP Sees Significant Hiring Improvement In June

June 2011 ADP National Employment Report® cites 157,000 more private sector jobs, but more construction jobs disappear.

Unemployment RatesEmployment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated advance in employment from April to May was revised down, but only slightly, to 36,000 from the initially reported 38,000. The ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months.

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Conference Board: Employment Trends Index Declines

Although the Employment Trends Index is up year over year, April’s month over month decline is the largest in two years. Job growth running under the yellow.

Unemployment RatesThe Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined 0.6 percent in April to 100.5, down from March’s revised figure of 101.1. This is the largest monthly decline since April 2009. The April figure is up 6 percent from a year ago.

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Online Labor Demand Soars in March

Following a brief hiatus in February OnLine advertised vacancies rose 208,800 in March according to the Conference Board.

Help WantedOnline advertised vacancies rose 208,800 in March to 4,454,500 according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Data Series released today.  The March rise follows a large January increase and a small change in February, and brings the gain in labor demand in the first quarter of 2011 to over 600,000. This follows on the heels of a strong ADP National Employment Report yesterday.

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ADP: Private-Sector Employment Increases 201,000

This month’s ADP National Employment Report removes any doubt that private nonfarm payroll employment is accelerating.

Unemployment RatesPrivate-sector employment increased by 201,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® . The estimated change of employment from January 2011 to February 2011 was revised down to 208,000 from the previously reported increase of 217,000.

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ETI Up For Fifth Straight Month

In the wake of increasingly better prospects for American workers, the Employment Trends Index predicts modest job growth again in February.

Employment TrendsThe Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in February for the fifth consecutive month. The index now stands at 101.7, up from January’s revised figure of 100.1. The index is up over 8 percent from a year ago. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.

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Online Labor Demand Fizzles a Little in February

The Conference Board Reports that  posts for Online Help Sags a Bit in February.

Help Wanted OnlineIn stark contrast to the ADP Employment Report yesterday, The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Data Series reports that online advertised vacancies dipped by 27,400 in February to 4,245,600. Still, labor demand as measured by the HWOL has risen 1.41 million since the series’ low point in April 2009. This increase offsets approximately 80 percent of the 1.76 million drop in ad volume during the 2-year downturn period from April 2007 through April 2009.

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