Radarlogic Sees Trouble Ahead For Home Prices

As Seasonal Peak in Home Prices Passes the Signs Point to Trouble Ahead. Recent Growth in Foreclosure Filings Suggest REO Inventories May Balloon in Coming Months.

Home PricesIn July, the 25-MSA RPX Composite price remained essentially unchanged on a month-over-month basis, but declined year over year for the 13th month in a row.

RadarLogic®, in it’s July 2011 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report finds that the 25-MSA RPX Composite price (housing values for 25 major U.S. metropolitan areas) for July 21, 2011, was $187.24 per square foot, just 0.3 percent below the value for June 21, 2011, and 4.7 percent below the value for July 21, 2010.

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Existing-Home Sales Stronger In August Than Expected

Existing-home sales defy market predictions of little or no gain and increase nearly eight percent annually in August.

Existing Home SalesNational Association of Realtors® reports that, unlike new home sales that dropped 5.8 percent in August, existing-home sales increased for the same period, even though plagued with the same ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems as new home sales, including the regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene.

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Mahoning Valley Housing Report, August 2011

Valley Median Home Price Up 2nd Straight Month;Sales Finally Show Some Life, Up 1.8 Percent

According to RE/MAX Valley Real Estate’s Mahoning Valley Housing Report (MVHR) for August, 2011, single family residential sales (not seasonally adjusted) soared 26.1 percent from 272 units in July to 343 in August. Although the month over month increase was dramatic it was not enough to avoid yet another decrease of 0.7 percent annually. The seasonally adjusted, year over year comparison of closed transactions dropped again for the 42nd consecutive month.

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Existing-Home Sales Sink 3.5 Percent in July

The third decline in 4 months puts sales pace behind last year’s dismal total despite a better July in 2011.

Existing-home sales declined in July from June’s pace, but are higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing Home Sales DownTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in July from 4.84 million in June (we look for at least 6 million sales in a strong economy). However, we are 21.0 percent above the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. NAR does not like to point out that this year’s pace lags considerably behind last year’s total sales of 4.91 million which then represented then weakest sales figures in 13 years.

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Beige Book Theme: Weak Housing Market

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Federal Reserve Beige BookBusiness activity in the Fourth District expands but a slower rate since last report weighed down by weak Housing Market.

“New-home construction remains at a low level, with only two of our contacts reporting an uptick in sales during June. Purchases were mainly in the move-up buyer categories. Contractors expect that single-family construction will remain depressed until potential buyers can more easily sell their existing homes and the job market begins to gain some traction. List prices of new homes held steady, while the use of discounting grew. Upward pressure on the cost of building materials was reported by almost all of our contacts. Spec inventories were reduced further relative to year-ago levels. General contractors continue to work with lean crews, and no hiring is expected in the near term. Many subcontractors are struggling to stay in business and are bidding jobs below cost.”

- Beige Book, Fourth District–Cleveland, July 2011

New-Home Sales Stall In June

June’s actual sales of 29,000 now the second worse June since the Commerce Department began keeping records in 1963.

Builder Confidence UnchangedSales of newly built, single-family homes declined 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 312,000 units in June, according to figures released today by the U.S. Commerce Department today.

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RPX: May Home Prices Flat Despite Spring Seasonality

Weak Fundamentals Undermine Expected Seasonal Strength in Home Prices

The Absence of Spring Strength Foreshadows New Lows in the Fall

Reduced PriceThe RPX Composite Price declined 5.9 percent in May relative to May 2010, according to the May 2011 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released today by Radar Logic Incorporated. The rate of year-on-year decline has been accelerating since June 2010 and the rate as of May was the fastest observed since September 2009.

Home prices typically increase in the spring due to seasonal factors, and the bulk of the gains usually occur by May. This year, however, the RPX Composite Price, which tracks home prices in 25 major metropolitan areas across the country, was virtually the same in May as it was in January. While the RPX Composite increased month over month in April and May, these gains barely offset declines in January. The below-average seasonal increase in home prices this spring foreshadows new post-bust lows this fall.

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Monthly Housing Sales and Prices Continue Upward Trend

RE/MAX reports housing sales and prices were up again month over month following seasonal trends, however are down year over year, -10.6 and -4.9 percent respectively.

Home prices have now risen for four months in a row and sales transactions have risen for five of the last seven months, while the drop in sales prices from 2010 is smaller than it has been in the last three months. The June 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report, which includes sales data from 53 metro areas in 45 states, indicates that closed transactions rose 7.5% and median prices were up 4.5% from May.

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MVHR: June Loses Momentum

Mahoning Valley Market Report for June 2011. Valley Real Estate Market Remains Uneven. June gives back gains made in April and May.

According to RE/MAX Valley Real Estate’s Mahoning Valley Housing Report (MVHR) for June, single family residential closed transactions (not seasonally adjusted) fell 14 percent from sales recorded in May to just 308 units, and declined 11.7 percent  from June 2010 (the last month of the tax credit give-away) when 349 units were sold in the Valley. The seasonally adjusted, month over month comparison of closed transactions also fell slightly, down again for the 40th consecutive month. 

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Existing-Home Sales Ease In April

Existing-home sales slipped in April, although National Association of Realtors® is quick to point out that market has managed gains in six of the past nine months.

Existing Home Sales DownExisting-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, eased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in March, and are 12.9 percent below a 5.80 million pace in April 2010; sales surged in April and May of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit.

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Mahoning Valley Market Report MVHR – April, 2011

Single Family Residential Existing-Home Sales Fall Unexpectedly; Median Home Price Squeezes a Nominal Gain

MVHR Dold Sign - April

Sales down 1.5%; Median Home Price up 0.9%

According to RE/MAX Valley Real Estate’s Mahoning Valley Housing Report (MVHR) for April, single family residential closed transactions unexpectedly fell, month over month, a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent; while the yearly, month over month comparison of closed transactions continues to erode for the 38th straight month. The seasonally adjusted median home price in the Valley, however, rose modestly 0.9 percent, ending a two-month skid. Our measure of the annual absorption rate rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from 14.8 months to 14.9 months as the Bull Housing Market for Buyers roars on.  Continue reading