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CBO: Obama’s plan to refinance millions of loans will do little to improve housing or create jobs.
President Obama only briefly mentioned housing in his quotidian “jobs speech” when he outlined an initiative to refinance millions of homeowners’ mortgages at today’s record-low rates. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published findings that suggests Obama’s plan is likely to have little impact on the housing recovery except to redistribute $13 to $15 billion of investors’ money to borrowers.
“With respect to the housing market, the overall impact of the program is also small; the 111,000 homeowners saved from foreclosure by virtue of lower monthly mortgage payments will have a minor impact on the path of future home prices. Because this program is directed toward current homeowners, it would do little to alleviate the tighter underwriting standards and increased credit pricing for purchase loans. In addition, it would not create much demand for homes, because all of its participants would already have at least one property.”
—An Evaluation of Large-Scale Mortgage Refinancing Programs, Working Paper Series, Congressional Budget Office. Washington, D.C., Working Paper 2011-4, September 2011
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Private-sector employment increased by 91,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from June to July was revised down modestly to 109,000, from the initially reported 114,000.
This week’s Unemployment numbers were unspectacular insofar as the unemployment situation is concerned. As usual, there was no improvement. Claims are still hovering at 400,000 and will probably get worse before it gets better. But, get a load of the ‘special factor’ that led off the announcement:
Following a strong 1st quarter (+763,000) US labor demand stalled with losses of 292,000 since March North Carolina, Minnesota, 
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined 0.6 percent in April to 100.5, down from March’s revised figure of 101.1. This is the largest monthly decline since April 2009. The April figure is up 6 percent from a year ago.
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in February for the fifth consecutive month. The index now stands at 101.7, up from January’s revised figure of 100.1. The index is up over 8 percent from a year ago. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.
Online advertised vacancies rose a modest 47,400 in November to 4,457,200 following an increase of 113,700 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Data Series. The nation’s Supply/Demand rate stood at 3.37 unemployed for every advertised vacancy in October (down from a peak of 4.73 in October 2009. The Conference Board Reports that there are now 10.4 million more unemployed U.S. workers than advertised vacancies.