Pending Home Sales Defy November Expectations

Although market analysts expected housing slowdown to severely impact growth the Pending Homes Index managed a 3.5 percent increase in November.

The broad trend over the past five months indicates gradual recovery into 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Pending Home Sales IncreaseThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) unexpectedly rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. This recent increase still leaves the index 5.0 percent below 97.0 reading posted in November last year. Remember that this reflects contracts and not closings. The closings will normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

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Giant Leap in October for Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales rose dramatically in October, continuing a positive uptrend since bouncing off the bottom in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Pending Home Sales IncreaseThe Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. (The index is a forward looking indicator as data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.) The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6. NAR is quick to point out that the surge last October was due to first-time buyers motivated to make offers before the contract deadline of the first tax credit.

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Pending Homes Index Loses Ground In September

Pending home sales unexpectedly retreats after two monthly gains. Disruptions from the foreclosure moratorium may contribute to further setbacks in the near term, according to NAR.

Pending Home Sales - DecreaseAlthough analysts were looking for a 3 percent rise, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator from the National Association of Realtors®, slipped 1.8 percent to 80.9 based on contracts signed in September from an upwardly revised 82.4 in August. However, the index remains 24.9 percent below a surge to 107.8 in September 2009 when first-time buyers were jumping into the market to take advantage of the initial deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

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Mahoning Valley Market Report MVHR – October, 2010

Absorption Rate Set another Report Record as Valley Prices Turn Down Again

MVHR - Six Month Median Price Trend - October 2010

MVHI Median Price Index (MPS) x $100

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate in its monthly Mahoning Valley Housing Report for October, 2010 reports that the MVHI Median Price Index (MPS) ( a 12 month moving average of the monthly median price) for a home in the Valley declines a modest 1.1% to $63,940. Even though the decline was modest, it was the third decline in five months and erased any vestage momentum remaining in home prices added by the Tax Credit.

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Gain in Pending Home Sales Hailed With Caution

Pending home sales have increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. But we’re far from out of the woods yet.

Pending Home Sales Increase

The pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence. - NAR

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

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Mahoning Valley Market Report MVHR – September, 2010

Mahoning Valley Home Prices Start to Stabilize, but Absorption Rate Index Climbs to Record MVHR High.

MVHI 6 Month Median Home Price

MVHI 6 Month Median Home Price (x100) Click to enlarge.

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate in its monthly Mahoning Valley Housing Report for September, 2010 reports that the MVHI Median Price Index (MPS) for a home in the Valley saw a modest increase of 1.4 % to $64,648 in September after two straight months of declines. This small increase for the 12 month moving average came despite the unadjusted price for September being a whopping 20.7% over August. These two increases gives us reason to think that home prices have stabilized post tax credit, and at values higher than the big tax credit months of March and April.

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NAR: Unexpected Rise In Pending Home Sales

Following a sharp drop in the months immediately after expiration of the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales have modestly risen, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Pending Home Sales IncreaseThe Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, unexpectedly rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1 percent below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

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Pending Home Sales Edge Down As Expected

Predictably, home sales expected to be considerably lower in the short term.

Pending home sales edged down with near-term sales expected to be notably lower in contrast to the spring surge when buyers rushed to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, declined 2.6 percent to 75.7 based on contracts signed in June from an upwardly revised level of 77.7 in May, and is 18.6 percent below June 2009 when it was 93.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

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Valley Home Prices Climb Again But MVHR Components Lack Luster

The rise in the Median Home Price Index (MVHI), was the only bright spot among the key components in this month’s Mahoning Valley Market Report.

Mahoning Valley Housing Index - June 2010

Mahoning Valley Housing Index - June 2010 (x100)

The Median Price Index (MVHI) for a home here in the Valley rose again for the ninth straight month from it’s low of $57,300 last September to $65,590 in May 2010 according to data released today by RE/MAX Valley Real Estate in its monthly Mahoning Valley Housing Report for June, 2010.

June brought little improvement to the Active Monthly Inventory  (SAI) or the  Absorption Rate Index (ARI). The Valley had 4,138 units on the market compared to 4,265 a year ago. The absorption rate indicates how long it will take to sell all the houses currently for sale. A six month rate is considered balanced.The ARI Twelve Month Moving Average stands at 13.2 months for the second month in a row. Continue reading

Pending Homes Sales – April Surge to May Dirge

Following the home buyer tax credit driven surge, pending home sales fell a staggering 30 percent with the expiration of the deadline April 30 for qualified buyers to sign a purchase contract, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Housing Report

Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator the housing sector, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April, and is 15.9 percent below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The falloff comes after three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit. Here in the Midwest the PHSI index dropped 32.1 percent to 70.8 and is 20.2 percent below a year ago.  Continue reading

Pending Home Sales Surge in April. NAR Asks Congress To Extend Closing Deadline.

Pending home sales have risen for three consecutive months, reflecting the broad impact of the home buyer tax credit and favorable housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Pending Home SalesThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 6.0 percent to 110.9 based on contracts signed in April, from 104.6 in March, and is 22.4 percent higher than April 2009 when it was 90.6. That follows gains of 7.1 percent in March and 8.3 percent in February. The PHSI in the Midwest rose 4.1 percent to 104.2 and is 17.9 percent above April 2009.

Pending home sales are at the highest level since last October when the index reached 112.4 and first-time buyers were rushing to beat the initial deadline for the tax credit. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this second round of surging sales from the tax credit extension looks as strong as the original tax credit. “There were concerns that only a small pool of buyers were left to take advantage of the tax credit extension. But evidently the tax stimulus, combined with improved consumer confidence and low mortgage interest rates, are contributing to surging sales,” he said. “The housing market has to get back on its own feet and now appears to be in a good position to return to sustainable levels even without government stimulus, provided the economy continues to add jobs.” NAR expects a net of 1 million additional jobs in the second half of this year and about 2 million in 2011.

“A big concern surfacing recently is insufficient time to close the deal at the settlement table. Under normal circumstances, two months would be enough time from contract signing to settlement date,” Yun said. “However, the recent housing cycle has brought long delays related to the short sales approval process by banks, and from ongoing appraisal issues. There could be a sizable number of homebuyers who responded to tax credit incentives, but may encounter problems meeting the settlement deadline by June 30.”

Because of these market challenges, NAR has asked Congress to provide flexibility on the deadline for closing.

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Further InformationNews Release, Pending Home Sales Index